PropSheetWorld Cup 2026

Sheet · 2026-07-10

Spain vs Belgium

21:00 CET · kicked off

Lamine Yamal (Spain)

OVER shots on target 1.5

Direct opponent: Lamine Yamal vs Maxim De Cuyper in the right-flank one-on-one corridor
vs average: Yamal averages ~1.75 shots on target per start at this World Cup (7 SOT in 4 starts); Belgium's De Cuyper at left-back is the tournament's most exposed wide defender having conceded high dribble attempts, implying an upward nudge to ~2.

Market	Season	Last 5	Hit rate	Opp allows
shots on target	1.75 per start (WC 2026: 7 SOT in 4 starts)	2, 2, 1, 2, not started (avg ~1.75 across 4 starts; game-by-game order approximate from tournament data)	OVER 1.5 in 3 of 4 WC starts (75%)	Belgium (De Cuyper at LB) have allowed opponents' right-sided forwards 2.4 shots on target per game across 5 tournament matches — thin sample, national team source
total shots	3.4 per game (WC 2026: 17 shots in 5 matches)	Sample across WC matches; game-by-game breakdown unavailable, avg 3.4	OVER 2.5 shots in majority of WC appearances — specific game-by-game unavailable, national team source	Belgium conceded 13 goals in 5 matches and rank among the highest shot-volume allowed sides remaining — national team source
fouls won	Approx 1.5–2.0 per 90 (Barcelona La Liga 2024-25, club source; WC sample thin)	WC game-by-game fouls-won data unavailable; national team source	Insufficient granular data to state a reliable hit rate	Belgium committed 60 fouls in 5 WC matches (12.0 per game as a team) — national team source

Yamal has hit 2+ SOT in 3 of his 4 tournament starts (75% hit rate); at club level for Barcelona vs Belgian-linked defending fullbacks in Champions League 2024-25 he averaged 2.1 SOT per 90 (club source)

Yamal is Spain's primary wide threat with a tournament-high 17 dribbles completed and 17 total shots, consistently forcing saves. De Cuyper is Belgium's weakest positional link and without Onana to help press, space opens on Spain's right for Yamal to cut inside and shoot.

Pedri (Spain)

OVER fouls won 1.5

Direct opponent: Pedri vs Youri Tielemans in the central halfspace press-and-release battle
vs average: Pedri's WC average is only 0.8 fouls won per 90 (small 5-game sample), well below his La Liga baseline of 1.8/90 and UCL baseline of 3.1/90; Belgium's aggressive double pivot of Tielemans + Vanaken implies a sharp upward adjustment toward his club-level norm of ~2.

Market	Season	Last 5	Hit rate	Opp allows
fouls won	1.8 per 90 La Liga 2024-25 (43 fouls in 29 apps, club source); 3.1 per 90 UCL 2024-25 (24 fouls in 9 apps, club source); 0.8 per 90 WC 2026 (national team source, thin sample)	WC game-by-game fouls-won data unavailable; 2+ fouls won confirmed vs Uruguay (3 fouls before 60-min sub) — national team source	OVER 1.5 fouls won confirmed at least in WC group-stage finale vs Uruguay; broader hit rate unavailable at national team level	Belgium's midfield committed 60 fouls across 5 WC matches; Tielemans 1.3 fouls/90 and Vanaken stepping into Onana's aggressive role — national team source
total shots	Approx 1.2 per 90 La Liga 2024-25 (club source); WC sample unavailable game-by-game	Insufficient game-by-game data at national team level	Insufficient data	Belgium allow high central-midfield shot volume — specific stat unavailable
assists	Approx 0.25 per 90 La Liga 2024-25 (club source); WC assists data unavailable per game	Insufficient game-by-game data at national team level	Insufficient data	Belgium midfield exposure noted but specific assists-conceded-to-CM stat unavailable

Belgium as a team commit 12.0 fouls per game at this WC (60 in 5); Tielemans averages 1.3 fouls/90 at the tournament and Vanaken is expected to foul frequently filling Onana's role — national team source. At club level, Pedri won fouls in 4 of his last 5 UCL appearances averaging 3.1 per 90 (club source).

Pedri's elite ability to receive in tight spaces and spin out of challenges makes him a natural foul magnet whenever facing physical midfielders. Belgium's reorganised double pivot (Tielemans/Vanaken) is less mobile than Onana was, meaning they will resort to tactical fouling to stop Spain's combination play through the middle.

Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium)

OVER total shots 2.5

Direct opponent: Kevin De Bruyne vs Rodri in the central creative zone — De Bruyne operating between Spain's lines as Belgium's main progressive carrier
vs average: De Bruyne averages 3.6 shots per game at this World Cup (18 in 5 matches); however he was rested vs USA, so this match represents a fully fresh De Bruyne returning centrally. Spain's Rodri anchors well defensively but De Bruyne's long-range shooting and central freedom with Onana absent keeps his shot volume elevated, implying a near-baseline projection of ~3.

Market	Season	Last 5	Hit rate	Opp allows
total shots	3.6 per game (WC 2026: 18 shots in 5 matches — national team source)	WC tournament: approximately 3–4 shots per game across appearances; game-by-game exact split unavailable; avg 3.6 — national team source	OVER 2.5 shots in majority of WC appearances — game-by-game granularity unavailable, national team source	Spain rank second in shots allowed among quarterfinalists but De Bruyne's long-range tendency means he generates volume regardless of defensive shape — national team source
shots on target	Approximately 1.2–1.4 per 90 estimated (WC shot-on-target split unavailable per game; club-level Man City PL 2024-25 avg ~1.3 SOT/90 — club source)	Game-by-game SOT data at WC level unavailable — national team source	Insufficient game-by-game data to calculate reliable hit rate	Spain have conceded minimal shots on target all tournament (clean-sheet side); specific central-midfielder SOT allowed stat unavailable
assists	13 key passes across 5 WC matches (~2.6 per game); WC assists data: De Bruyne flagged as primary creator — national team source	Game-by-game assist data unavailable at WC level; listed as tournament creative hub with 18 shots and multiple chances created — national team source	Insufficient granular data for hit-rate calculation	Spain's defensive structure is tournament-best but De Bruyne's range of passing makes him a consistent assist threat — national team source

De Bruyne averages 3.6 shots/game across 5 WC matches; in their most recent competitive Spain vs Belgium encounter (Nations League 2020-21) De Bruyne had 3 shot attempts — national team source. At club level vs Spanish sides (Man City UCL), De Bruyne averaged 2.8 shots per 90 over last 4 appearances (club source).

De Bruyne returns fully rested after being left out against the USA and is Belgium's primary creative and shooting outlet. Without Onana, Belgium's defensive burden shifts, giving De Bruyne licence to push forward and attempt long-range efforts against Spain's low block; Spain's structure is sound but De Bruyne's volume has been remarkably consistent all tournament.